Whitepaper – Market Pattern Forecast (MPF)

Subtitle: A Unified Framework for Cycle‑Aware, Pattern‑Informed Directional Forecasting

Summary (TL;DR)
The MPF whitepaper explains how multi‑candle pattern similarity and historical outcome distributions can be used to surface high‑confidence directional setups, without providing buy/sell advice. It covers the rationale, core logic, validation approach, visual markers (forecastUp/forecastDown), limitations, and roadmap. The paper is written for traders, analysts, and researchers who prefer transparent, selective, and probabilistic methods over black‑box signals.

What you’ll learn

• Why MPF exists: markets are cyclical, pattern repetition can inform direction. Probabilistically, not deterministically.
• How it works: multi‑candle feature configurations, historical match scoring, confidence thresholds, and a fixed forecast window.
• Visual language: green triangle (forecastUp) and red triangle (forecastDown) as probability markers, not trade instructions.
• Validation: retrospective testing, walk‑forward philosophy, asset/timeframe robustness, and human‑in‑the‑loop review.
• Use in context: MPF stands alone, but can be layered with MRM for momentum‑phase context (optional).
• Limitations: no guarantees; model output is directional probability, not financial advice.
• Roadmap: selectivity tuning, clustering, expanded metrics, and integrations.

Who it’s for

• Discretionary traders seeking structured, selective context.
• System builders who want interpretable features over black‑box outputs.
• Educators & coaches who need clear visuals and falsifiable logic.
• Analysts who report with transparent, repeatable criteria.

How MPF works

• Feature set: body/wick structure, range/volatility context, candle clustering, momentum shifts.
• Outcome model: distribution of historical follow‑through over a fixed horizon.
• Selectivity: confidence threshold → no signal when evidence is inconclusive.

Visuals

• 🟢 Green triangle (below) → forecastUp
• 🔴 Red triangle (above) → forecastDown
  Markers = probabilistic cues only (a triangle is not a trade).

Context (optional)

Layer with MRM to align probability cues with momentum phases (Phase 1–3). MPF works stand‑alone; MRM is optional.

Limitations

No model can predict with certainty. MPF does not account for fundamentals, breaking news, or order flow by itself. Always use confluence and risk management.

Legal & usage

Disclaimer (short form)
This content and MPF are for educational and informational purposes only and do not constitute financial advice. Trading involves risk. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Always do your own research.

Licensing
Personal, non‑transferable license. Non‑commercial use unless otherwise agreed. See full Terms, Privacy Policy, Terms & Conditions, and Legal Disclaimer.