Seeing before acting

Why taking time to form a clear picture is rational risk reduction, not bureaucracy

This article is part of a broader line of work on systems, structure, and decision-making developed at Inratios.

In the previous two articles I published on Medium, I outlined why seeing the broader picture matters. The first article focused on the importance of understanding the whole. On how systems fail when they act on an incomplete picture.The second article explored why this happens so often. Under pressure, action feels like progress. Speed is mistaken for control. Not acting feels like failure. These observations raise a new question. If acting too early can negatively affect outcomes, what role does forming a clear picture actually play? And if we know this, why does it so often feel like delay, bureaucracy, or indecision in practice? This article is about that question.

Forming the clear picture is often misunderstood
In complex situations, forming the clear picture is not a preparatory phase. It is the foundation for an effective next step and a meaningful outcome. Not as a formality or a procedure, but as active and rational risk reduction. This is clearly visible in crisis management. Forming the picture is often treated as something you do “briefly” before you really begin. A problem is defined based on the information available at that moment. Often, this already happens from the perspective of a solution that is implicitly assumed. As a result, gathering information, alignment, and discussion are quickly labeled as bureaucracy. Too much discussion. Too much analysis. Too little action. That feels uncomfortable, especially under pressure. Action creates a sense of progress. Standing still feels like failure. But that picture is misleading. Good picture formation is not passive waiting. It is active sensemaking in a situation that is not yet clear. Not by steering immediately, but by first understanding what is actually going on.

Why this becomes particularly visible in crises
In a crisis, pressure is high. Time feels scarce. The call for action is loud. In those moments, the temptation to intervene quickly is strong. Doing something feels better than doing nothing. But experienced crisis professionals know this is a trap. They know that an early, misguided intervention can make the situation worse. That the system responds to every move. That options narrow once an intervention has taken place. That is why, in crisis management, most of the effort does not go into deciding, but into forming the picture. Not because people are slow. But because they understand what is at stake.

BOBas a way of thinking, not a method
In crisis management, teams often work with a three-step principle: Situational Awareness, Sensemaking, and Decision-Making. In Dutch, this sequence is known as Beeldvorming, Oordeelsvorming, Besluitvorming, commonly referred to by the abbreviation BOB. I will use that term throughout this article. In practice, BOB is often presented as a step-by-step process to map the situation and identify the core problem. But in real situations, it is not about sequence. It is about irreversibility. Without a reliable picture of the situation, any judgment is noise. Without a solid judgment, any decision is a gamble. Once a decision is taken and an intervention occurs, the system reacts. Options narrow. Paths harden. Turning back becomes costly. For that reason, the order implied by BOB is not a bureaucratic invention. It reflects how complex situations behave in practice.

Why 90 percent of the work is clear picture formation (Situational Awareness)
Errors in forming the clear picture propagate exponentially. A small distortion at the beginning can lead to major consequences later. Correction requires more time, more resources, and causes more damage than prevention. That is why it is rational to invest most of the total effort before any intervention takes place, including judgment and decision-making. Not to be certain about everything. But to avoid solving the wrong problem.

Why this often feels like bureaucracy
Forming the clear picture is invisible work (Situational Awareness). It does not produce immediate action, quick wins, or visible decisions. In environments that reward action, this feels uncomfortable. It clashes with the idea that leadership must be visible. That control means intervening. But in complex systems, control works differently. Control does not emerge from acting quickly, but from acting appropriately. And that begins with recognizing the underlying structure of the problem. Not with a desired outcome. Not with the feeling that something must be done. But with a reliable picture of what is actually going on.

This pattern is not domain-specific
This mechanism is not unique to crises. It appears again and again in complex challenges. In organizations where change stalls. In processes where performance declines. In teams that keep optimizing without actually moving forward. The same logic shows up across disciplines.

• In Lean thinking, it appears in repeatedly asking the why question. Not to reach a solution faster, but to prevent the first answer from locking in the wrong problem. Five whys is not a technique. It is a way of deepening the picture before intervening.
• In medical science, the same logic exists through clinical reasoning. Symptoms are not a starting point for treatment, but signals that must first be interpreted. Acting without a proper problem representation is considered a cognitive error, not decisiveness.
• In research, organizational challenges, and system design, the same principle applies. Those who steer too early toward an outcome lose sight of the underlying cause. Those who first sharpen the picture increase the likelihood that interventions actually make a difference.
• In financial markets, the same pattern appears in market analysis.Price movements are often treated as signals to act on. A rise suggests buying, a drop suggests selling. But experienced analysts know that price alone is not the situation. Without understanding the broader market context (regime, phase, and structural conditions) early action easily locks traders into the wrong interpretation. What looks like momentum can be noise. What feels like opportunity can be a structural transition. Acting on price before the picture is clear is not decisiveness, but exposure to avoidable risk.

Control begins before intervention
Those who see clear picture formation as delay will eventually be forced to intervene more aggressively.
Those who see clear picture formation as risk reduction need to correct far less often. In the next article, I will explore the relationship between speed and stability. And why fast interventions in complex systems often achieve the exact opposite of what they intend.