Market Framework Model – Empirical Backtest Paper

A structural evaluation across SPX, NVDA, Gold, BTC, and XRP

Go to the Market Framework Model webpage

Why this paper exists

The Market Framework Model (MFM) is not a signal engine and not a traditional indicator.
It is a structural model that organizes markets into four layers: Regime, Phase, Ratio, and Directional Probability. This paper investigates one central question: Do the structural patterns defined by MFM actually appear in historical market data? The goal is not to claim profitability, but to validate whether markets behave in phases, cycles, and non-linear structures. Exactly as the MFM framework proposes.

What the study shows

Across five assets and multiple timeframes, the same structural tendencies appear:

Phase 3 exhibits consistent recovery behavior relative to random market bars
Phase 1 shows structural slowing and exhaustion patterns
Phase 2 behaves as a compression and transition zone
Regime determines direction, Phase determines structure
Phase classification remains surprisingly stable, even in high-volatility assets

The evidence supports the foundational idea:
MFM does not generate signals, it organizes market structure.

How the analysis was conducted

All calculations were performed using:

raw TradingView exports
no winsorization
no slippage assumptions
no optimization or curve fitting
fixed parameters across all assets

Simple, transparent, and honest. Exactly what a first empirical validation should be.

What this paper is and what it is not

This paper is:

An empirical examination of structural market behaviour
A validation that phase dynamics recur across assets
Evidence that markets exhibit organized, cyclical tendencies

**This paper is not:**

A prediction tool
A trading system
A performance claim
A forward-tested track record

Interpretation remains contextual.
MFM provides structural information, not trade instructions.

Who this is for